INDONESIA: The latest survey conducted by Litbang Kompas, a prominent Indonesian research institute, has unveiled fresh perspectives on the electability of potential presidential candidates ahead of the upcoming 2024 General Election.
The survey, released on Monday (21 Aug), has presented intriguing insights into the preferences of the electorate and the shifting dynamics within the political landscape.
In the survey, three potential candidates for the presidential race were considered: Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan.
The findings revealed that Ganjar Pranowo emerged as the frontrunner, possessing the highest electability at 34.1 per cent among the respondents.
This places him ahead of Prabowo Subianto, who garnered 31.3 per cent, and Anies Baswedan, with 19.2 per cent of the respondents’ support in the top-of-mind category.
Interestingly, when the simulation included 10 potential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo maintained his lead with 29.6 per cent.
Prabowo Subianto secured 27.1 per cent, while Anies Baswedan achieved 15.2 per cent.
The survey further explored the preferences as the field narrowed to five candidates, showing Ganjar Pranowo still leading with 31.8 per cent, followed by Prabowo Subianto with 27.8 per cent and Anies Baswedan with 15.6 per cent.
The survey’s analysis noted a significant observation: Ganjar Pranowo’s electability experienced a revival after a dip in May 2023, climbing from 22.8 per cent to nearly 25.3 per cent.
Litbang Kompas remarked that this narrow 0.3 per cent lead over Prabowo marked a notable change, particularly as Prabowo’s support had remained relatively stable over the last three months.
Prabowo Subianto leads in key areas, while Ganjar Pranowo shines in economic and social welfare expertise
While the fluctuations might appear subtle, Litbang Kompas underscored the potential implications of these trends on the future political landscape.
Notably, Prabowo Subianto consistently maintained a commanding lead when pitted head-to-head against Ganjar Pranowo, garnering 52.9 per cent to Ganjar’s 47.1 per cent in the recent survey.
On the issues front, the survey assessed public perceptions regarding six key areas: the economy, social welfare, law enforcement, unity, political stability, and corruption handling.
Prabowo Subianto emerged as the preferred candidate for four of these categories: law enforcement, unity, political stability, and combating corruption.
In contrast, Ganjar Pranowo was seen as more capable of handling economic matters and social welfare.
Military background boosts Prabowo, regional leadership bolsters Ganjar in public perception
Yohan Wahyu, a researcher from Litbang Kompas, attributed Prabowo’s strong performance in the four-issue categories to his military background, which has cultivated a public image of decisiveness and courage.
This perception aligns with the survey’s findings, indicating that a leader with a strong military background is often sought after by the public.
Ganjar Pranowo’s credibility in addressing economic and social issues was attributed to his current role as the Governor of Central Java, which enables him to remain closely connected to the daily challenges faced by the populace.
Yohan Wahyu acknowledged the preference for leaders with a background as regional leaders, besides military figures, as the survey pointed out.
The survey was conducted face-to-face between 27 July and 7 August 2023, involving 1,364 respondents across Indonesia’s 38 provinces, distributed across 331 villages and urban areas. The margin of error for the survey was approximately 2.65 per cent.
A similar survey by Lembaga Indikator Politik Indonesia, held from 20 June to 24 June 24 this year, showcased Prabowo Subianto at 36.8 per cent, Ganjar Pranowo at 35.7 per cent, and Anies Baswedan at 21.5 per cent.
This survey included 1,220 respondents from all provinces in Indonesia, aged 17 or older and eligible to vote in the general elections. The survey’s margin of error was around 2.9 per cent at a confidence level of 95 per cent.