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PAP may lose more votes in upcoming election but will definitely remain in power

Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong acknowledges the possibility of opposition gains, but historical trends and electoral structures suggest that the People’s Action Party is likely to form the Singapore government again, despite a potential decrease in voter support in the upcoming election.



Speaking in an interview with local media prior to his appointment as Singapore’s 4th Prime Minister on 15 May, Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong suggested that if the Workers’ Party and one or two other opposition parties intensify their efforts in the next election, a slight dip in PAP’s votes could lead to a coalition government formed by two or three opposition parties, achieving over 50% of the vote.

“That’s why I seriously say I do not assume PAP will automatically win the next election or that I will definitely be PM,” Wong added, highlighting the evolving nature of Singapore’s political landscape where diverse voices are now heard in Parliament.

Wong further stated that Singapore’s political system today is no longer a dominant one-party system but rather one where alternative voices and diverse views can be heard on any issue.

Wong further said that Singapore’s political system today is no longer a dominant one-party system but rather one where alternative voices in Parliament and diverse views on any issue can be heard.

Once again, we hear the same fear-mongering from PAP politicians about the possibility of a freak election, seeing a non-PAP government following the conclusion of polling day in the election.

While it is true that the PAP managed to garner only 61.23% of the total votes cast during the COVID-19 pandemic in July 2020, this was a significant decline from the 69.86% it managed in the previous election. However, the eventual outcome of the poll contrasts with Wong’s statement about the possibility of the opposition forming the government.

One should note that although the PAP secured just over 60% of total votes in the most recent election, it still held 89.2% of the total parliamentary seats, or 83 out of 93 seats.

Even if we assume that the seats where the opposition managed to get over 40% during GE2020—from those contested by the Singapore Democratic Party, Progress Singapore Party, and Workers’ Party—could be won in the next election, that would add only 22 seats to the existing 10, making it 32 seats. This is still far from the 47 seats needed for a majority to form a government.

Furthermore, we have not yet factored in the dissolution of wards that the PAP nearly lost in the upcoming election, similar to how Fengshan SMC and Joo Chiat SMC were wiped off from the map by the Electoral Boundary Review Committee, led by the secretary to the PM, without any explanations.

Many speculate that Bukit Batok SMC, which is contested by SDP’s Dr Chee Soon Juan, might be absorbed into a GRC and that West Coast GRC, where former Transport Minister S Iswaran was situated and nearly won by PSP with its 48.32% of votes, could be broken up or redrawn.

Back in July 2020, following the conclusion of the General Election, Wong himself said that it is “unlikely” that the ruling PAP would be able to exceed 65% of the national vote in future elections, given voters’ desire for alternative voices in Parliament.

“Subsequent general elections will be much tougher than this one. The desire for diversity in Parliament, for checks and balances, is permanent. It is here to stay, and we must be prepared for this new reality,” Mr Wong said to PAP activists.

It should be noted that since 1984, the PAP has typically obtained around 65% of the votes, with outliers being the snap election in 2001 following the September 11 terror attacks in the United States and the 2015 election, which occurred after founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew passed away in March of that year.

Based on past election trends, it is challenging to determine whether support for the ruling party is truly in decline despite the significant influx of new immigrants over the decades.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the prospect of the current batch of political parties contesting the election, winning over the majority of the electorate, and forming a government is far from certain, given the existing hurdles.

The results of past elections would, however, suggest that even if the PAP were to win below 50% of the total votes, it could still form a government due to the GRC system’s strongholds across the island.

Wong’s appointment as PM to be a challenge for PAP

In the same interview, Wong said, “…as Prime Minister and later Leader of the Party, I will do my very best to make sure that the PAP earns the confidence and trust of Singaporeans and we get the mandate to govern.”

“But if along the way, who knows how long, but down the road – we hope not, this will not happen – but if it does happen, that the PAP is not able to deliver up to the standards that Singaporeans expect of us and an alternative party or parties emerge that can offer a better answer, then they deserve to get the mandate.”

“But so long as it is under my watch, I will do everything I can to make sure that the PAP earns (the) confidence and trust of Singaporeans.”

Wong’s statement to the media seems to be aimed at lowering expectations for the upcoming election results, with him leading the party into the general election and LHL stepping out of the picture as Senior Minister.

Back in the day, it didn’t matter to many who held the top seat as long as they believed Old Lee was there to ensure Singapore was run well as a country.

Since he is not named Lawrence Lee and does not share the same good fortune as Goh Chok Tong, who had the backing of the late founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew when he first stepped up to the premiership, Wong faces a tough challenge in proving his ability to lead as the Prime Minister.

A survey conducted by YouGov in April this year, following the announcement of LHL stepping down for Wong to take over, revealed that while just over half considered him competent, three in five Singaporeans do not feel he is trustworthy. Furthermore, 72% do not think he is honest, and the same percentage do not see him as a strong leader.

Perhaps that’s why Wong has to go on social media and be promoted for his guitar skills instead of his leadership qualities, as people are simply not interested—according to YouGov’s figures, 36% didn’t care about the news of his being appointed as Prime Minister.

Frankly, given Wong’s background in civil service for essentially his entire career, it is quite a tall order to expect him to be his own man instead of following instructions from higher-ups.

Since Lee Hsien Loong will remain as the Senior Minister in the cabinet, it is unlikely that Wong would make any significant changes to Singapore’s policies, mainly since his fellow cabinet members are likely still eyeing the top seat.

If he is ousted for being his own man, it is doubtful any of his colleagues would lament the matter, just as MPs such as Tan Cheng Bock and others have been treated. On the other hand, the PAP has shown time and again that as long as a party member’s loyalty and actions align with the leadership, he or she will be taken care of regardless of any supposed transgression.

Wong set up the stage nicely when asked if he would relook at policies by saying, “We are prepared to relook everything; it is not so much that we are going to slay a sacred cow for the sake of doing so, but we are prepared to re-examine all our assumptions and consider under different circumstances, different societal expectations and needs; how might we do things different?”

When the PAP forms the new government after the General Election—most likely to be held in September this year—Wong will likely maintain the course set by his predecessor and boss, promoting an economy reliant on a population of over 6 million for growth. The population can be expected to grow in the future under the leadership of Wong, with massive infrastructure spending being planned and no apparent U-turn on the controversial Population White Paper.

Reflecting on Wong’s comment about the opposition forming a government, this is not the first time the PAP has remarked on the possibility of the opposition taking over.

One can recall 2015 when, for the first time since independence, all seats were contested. Former PAP chairman Khaw Boon Wan then told the press, “We cannot be sure of a PAP government on Sept 12.” with the headline, “No guarantee PAP will be in govt after polls: Khaw” splashed on top of the Straits Times front page.

And what happened next? The PAP nearly wiped out all opposition representation as WP barely held onto Aljunied GRC with a mere 50.96% of total votes cast, and Hougang SMC remained its sole stronghold.

Many attribute the results of the election to the passing of LKY, where many voters wanted to give him a farewell gift at the polls.

However, voters surely did not expect his family to fall apart not so soon after his passing over issues related to his wish to have the 38 Oxley Road property demolished after his death.

Perhaps the PAP understands deeply that its legitimacy with voters is not due to its belief in Lee Hsien Loong, Lawrence Wong, or any of the 4G ministers, but rather the undying trust in LKY’s foresight.

This might explain why they are so intent on vilifying Lee Hsien Yang, who has openly defied his elder brother and professes a desire to fulfil the final wish of the beloved statesman of the city-state.

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Interesting that LW citied Eisenhower in his interview. So like a general, LW is saying he may lose more battles, but he will still remain a general being paid million$ from taxpayers monies. He should read Sun Tzu – Why is a General called a General? (Hint: certainly not to lose battles.)

Well the PE says it all !

The usual broken record of melancholy to fool the electorate is starting to spin once again. It’s nothing unusual at all for the PAP. The discerning ones will know that PAP will still be in power. The crux is to reduce their numbers and not to topple them, not this time round. They are playing psychology on those naive and ignorant ones to blindly cast the vote for their continued dominance. With the reduction and hopefully an increase in credible alternative representation, their callous policies and high-handed stance that tantamount to over-lording the people will keep the at in check.… Read more »

If Singaporeans decide to prevent the incumbents from achieving a supermajority that would be considered a great success. Even better if the incumbents only secure a majority by just one seat. That might spur in-fighting within the lightning party as MPs can threaten to vote with the opposition to gain more influence. But alas, these are all pipedream scenarios. NASA would likely have sent men back to the Moon, build a moon base and land the first people on Mars before they become reality (Or more likely remain a dream). The most realistic scenario, assuming a continuation from the 2020… Read more »

Last edited 10 days ago by Blankslate

Some votes may lost due to the old citizens losing faith in this new and inexperienced 4G leaders. They still prefer loong.
The calibre of the oppositions is also catching up. Don’t underestimate the TCB effect.
The period between the change of leadership and the general election is also too close. Many citizens unable to digest it. Votes may fly away.
Of course, someone from the same party has also said before, votes lost due to internal feud.

LW team would have a higher % in electoral votes this time round. Punters even put it as high as 70% or slightly more. Pinky really know HOW to play this game, his papa taught him well. He knew if he remain, the % in votes would be worse than last time of 61%! LHL used the opportunity, to turn the tide after how LW had performed thru the Covid crisis. Of course money being on their side, they could make many, both voters and non voters, individual and businesses ,view the PAP favorably in how they run and manage… Read more »

Last edited 11 days ago by kenny

“If he is ousted for being his own man ……”, … is a statement that belongs in LaLaLand !!! C’mon, has everybody forgotten all the things LawLan has said and actioned over the decades, and, … what about his handling, as the head of the MTF, of Covid, when it was accorded, “SillyPore is one of the greatest failures in the world now” from Australia’s communicable diseases specialist, Mike Toole ~ 16May2020 !!! SillyPoreans truly have a shitty memory compounded by ultra naïveté and immaturity where elections are concerned, … and one only needs to be reminded of the not… Read more »

Newbie ah wong, now mouthfull of saliva wants to relook at everything.

What’s the point when all these issues and problems have been going on for umpteen years since lao goh, get really worst under pinky?

We’re not born yesterday lah!!

May take a few more GEs to make PAP a minority least 50/40..
Can we wait that long?
We cant afford to…
LW aint going to be much better, imo..
Cant allow PAP to keep bulldozing policies that prejudice our own trublus..
Vote wise folks..

Last edited 11 days ago by Think & Do

Do not vote the PAP. Where you live does not matter. Who you vote matters a lot. Each one MUST NOT vote PAP. Just vote for any opposition wherever you live. All this talk is PAP style. They know they have designed the GRC system to their favour. But we can kick them out… Kick them out for one term See how they try to screw things up It will test them if they are sincere in helping Singaporeans or willingly, with evil in their hearts & brains to screw Singaporeans. Put them outside parliament. Only then will we be… Read more »

Last few days “all night loong ” reporting on LHL”
From yesterday it was “all night wong” reporting on the virtues of the new PM…

Last edited 11 days ago by LionelRitchie

6 IMPORTANT things I suggest to critical SGpns. 1. Don’t be lulled by PAP LIES. 2. Lawless Wong is buying insurance but no need to pay premiums for indemnity. 3. Opposition continue to work as hard. 4. Singaporeans TO KEEP SOLID FAITH in Opposition working for SG NOT FOR POWER like PAP. 5. SG be UTMOST MINDFUL your future WILL MEANS MORE FOREIGNERS take over your FLATS – why Desmond Lee has the CRUEL HEART to DEPRIVE Oldies to live peacefully on their own when THEY HAD SLOGGED for SG -YOUR CHILDREN’S jobs, and BECOME CHILDLESS bcz of PRESSURES of… Read more »

What sort of their supporter , finger nail can count .

Pig / Sheep/ Cow = work , sleep , work , sleep

Cockroach / Rat etc = Steal other people lunch

Mosquito / insects = 20 % gst idea

Frog = inside the well

I will NOT vote for the establishment PAP. So much shit overflowing. I was in the establishment as teacher But this is how they treat ppl. A political game pawns to be used by them. Self serving white wash all the dark arts they practice. Pay themselves sky high wages while depressing others. Their celebrities and Oppo groups did shit BUT no disciplinary actions but used them to collect bones. Why would I vote for the establishment. Double, triple standards. Great at misleading others and overriding other ppl rights. Cannot accept No for an answer. These are all shown in… Read more »

Let’s REVISIT the reported statement made by one judiciary perhaps, not in exact wordings, “within is NOT inside”. It was apparent when PAP candidates violated this GE rule, there wasn’t any relevant rightful actions of recourse, necessary to take, that was taken by ELD, AG took place. And no protests by any interested party also it seemed at the time. Can one interpret, or like, thinking, that ELD, AG both committed Election Frauds or GE crimes to protect political criminals? And had they violated their impartiality towards Singaporeans in GE by taking sides when they are supposed to be servants… Read more »

They make sure their supporters are there to at least qualify. Freebies, jobs etc. No?!? The devils are into details … And the white shirt are devils disguise as angels or knight in shining armors … No?!?

It is known that the Singapore population consists of 40% new citizens. These would certainly vote for PAP out of obligations. Not all 60% of true blue Singaporeans are eligible to vote.

Even if all true blue Singaporeans voted for oppositions, new citizens would out vote the true blue.

New citizens are the vote bank of the PAP. make no mistake about it.

I disagree with LW on the losing votes. By and large, supporters of PAP has not changed and will likely vote for them as they have over the years.

Maybe it is a reverse psychology thing that he is pulling, the party had done this before.

Last edited 11 days ago by Alsohy