Coalition talks intensify as Prabowo-Gibran leads Presidential quick count

INDONESIA: The aftermath of the 2024 Indonesian presidential election has sparked intense political manoeuvring, with the possibility of coalition formations dominating the post-election landscape.

Amidst the prevailing uncertainty, the Secretary General of the Gerindra Party, Ahmad Muzani, has hinted at the potential for the Koalisi Indonesia Maju (KIM) to collaborate with the 01 and 03 President Candidates factions.

Expressing optimism, Muzani remarked, “With optimism, we believe our call to collectively shape Indonesia’s future under the Prabowo-Gibran government is not falling on deaf ears, God willing.”

Prabowo Subianto, the 02 Presidential candidate, assumes the role of General Chairman of the Party.

The basis for Muzani’s statement lies in his party’s initiation of communication with opposition parties aligned with the 01 and 03 camps following the swift electoral triumph of the Prabowo-Gibran ticket in the quick counts conducted by the General Election Commission (KPU).

Muzani disclosed the ongoing positive exchanges with several opposition party leaders, citing shared aspirations for advancing the nation.

“Among us (parties), there is a shared understanding of Indonesia’s future and governance in a better situation,” he elaborated, emphasizing common ground for the national progress.

However, Muzani declined to disclose the identities of the party leaders engaged in discussions, expressing hope that these dialogues would yield fruitful cooperation for a stronger Indonesian government.

Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, the Deputy Chairman of Gerindra’s Central Executive Board echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing the necessity of reinforcing Prabowo-Gibran’s readiness to lead Indonesia.

Medium-scale parties contemplating alignment with Prabowo-Gibran ticket

The dynamics of potential coalition formations have set the stage for medium-scale political parties to align with the presidential and vice-presidential ticket of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

Ahmad Khoirul Umam, the Executive Director of the Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs (Indostrategic), highlighted the hesitance of middle-class parties to confront power directly, citing concerns over economic-political risks and internal stability.

Despite Prabowo-Gibran’s significant lead in the presidential race, the Gerindra Party finds itself in third place in the legislative elections.

With approximately 13 per cent of the vote share, Gerindra’s standing falls short of the PDI Perjuangan and the Golkar Party.

This electoral context underscores Prabowo’s heightened political dependence to maintain stability during the early transition phase, necessitating the consolidation of at least 70 per cent of political support in parliament, as outlined by Umam.

Umam further emphasized the strategic opportunity for medium and mediocre parties to realign their allegiances, potentially defecting to the winning coalition.

The political landscape anticipates the integration of the United Development Party (PPP) into the ruling government, as its weakening electoral performance suggests a probable shift in an alliance.

Additionally, the Nasdem Party is predicted to align with the Prabowo camp, especially following recent bilateral discussions between the Nasdem Chairman, Surya Paloh, and President Joko Widodo.

However, uncertainty looms over the stance of the National Awakening Party (PKB).

Despite vocal criticisms of the government during the 2024 election campaign, Muhaimin Iskandar’s party has no history of opposition.

Similarly, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), despite previous alliances with Gerindra during Jokowi’s first term, has remained consistently critical of the Jokowi administration.

Beyond middle-tier parties, Prabowo’s camp is believed to be courting major political players, including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

PDI-P stands at a crossroads, with potential for both government participation and opposition, contingent upon decisions from party leaders, particularly Megawati Soekarnoputri, who holds decisive sway over the party’s direction.

The outcome of the presidential quick count, which placed Prabowo-Gibran at 58.47 per cent, has set the stage for potential coalition alignments.

Supported by a coalition including Gerindra, Golkar, the Democratic Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Crescent Star Party (PBB), Gelora Party, the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), Garuda Party, and the Fair Prosperous People’s Party (Prima), Prabowo-Gibran’s lead signals a pivotal moment in Indonesian politics.

In contrast, the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar ticket trails with 25.23 per cent, supported by Nasdem, PKB, PKS, and the Ummat Party.

Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD secured 16.30 percent, backed by PDI-P, PPP, Hanura Party, and Perindo Party.

Despite the quick count results, the official outcome awaits the KPU’s definitive vote tabulation, scheduled for 20 March.