Singapore’s trade in Feb faces a 18.8% decline from 2022’s peak despite recent gains

Singapore’s external trade underwent a nuanced shift in February 2024, with Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) experiencing a slight year-on-year (y-o-y) decline of 0.1%, in contrast to the substantial 16.7% expansion seen in the previous month.

However, it stood approximately 19% or $3.4 billion lower than the peak levels of February 2022.

According to Enterprise Singapore in its latest report, this subtle decrease was attributed to a downturn in non-electronic exports, despite the electronic sector posting growth.

However, on a positive note, NODX still showcased a 4.9% growth on a three-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, a slight decrease from January’s 5.1% rise.

The month-on-month (m-o-m) seasonally adjusted figures reveal a sharper decline of 4.8% in NODX, following a 2.2% increase in the prior month.

The seasonally adjusted NODX level for February stood at S$14.2 billion, down from January’s S$14.9 billion but still above the S$13.5 billion recorded in February 2023.

Enterprise Singapore highlighted the variances within the trade sectors, noting a year-on-year contraction in non-electronic products such as food preparations, specialty chemicals, and electrical circuit apparatus.

In contrast, the electronics sector saw significant y-o-y growth, led by increases in integrated circuits (ICs), personal computers (PCs), and parts of ICs.

Despite the fluctuations in NODX, Singapore’s total trade continued to grow in February 2024, marking a 3.5% y-o-y increase, albeit at a slower pace compared to the 14.1% expansion in the previous month.

This growth was driven by both exports and imports, with total exports up by 1.7% and imports rising by 5.6%. The overall trade figures, however, dipped slightly on a m-o-m seasonally adjusted basis by 0.5%.

Noteworthy is the performance of non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods (NORI), which surged from S$3.4 billion in January to S$5.2 billion in February, indicating a resilient demand for intermediate goods despite a slight drop from 2023’s average of S$5.3 billion.

Looking at the trade with top markets, NODX saw an overall increase in February, bolstered by significant growth in exports to Hong Kong, the United States, and Indonesia. This was offset by declines in exports to Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, the EU27, Thailand, South Korea, and China.

Oil domestic exports also showed robust growth, with a 9.9% y-o-y increase in February, supported by substantial export volume increases to Indonesia, Malaysia, and the US. This sector’s volume growth of 17.2% indicates a strong rebound in oil trade.

Non-oil re-exports (NORX) experienced a modest increase of 0.7% y-o-y, with electronic NORX leading the charge, whereas non-electronic NORX faced a decline.