The silence over Iswaran's innocence: CPIB's lack of action more troubling than proceedings

The People's Action Party (PAP) is navigating a touchy situation as it prepares for the upcoming General Election, with the unresolved case of Transport Minister S. Iswaran's corruption investigation casting a long shadow over the third-longest reigning political party globally.

National Development Minister Desmond Lee, who oversees the Boon Lay ward in West Coast GRC, has openly acknowledged in an interview with local media that the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB)'s probe into Minister Iswaran is "a very worrying development" which has significantly impacted the region.

Despite the ongoing situation with Iswaran's investigations, Mr Desmond Lee emphasized that their primary objective remains unchanged: serving the residents without any disruption to the essential services they rely on.

In mid-July last year, CPIB confirmed Iswaran’s arrest on 11 July alongside billionaire businessman Ong Beng Seng in connection with a corruption probe.

During a Parliament session on 2 August 2023, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loon disclosed that CPIB discovered information about Iswaran, warranting further investigation, first notifying him on 29 May 2023.

On 5 July 2023, CPIB’s Director briefed the Prime Minister, stressing the necessity for a formal interview with Iswaran to progress the inquiry. PM Lee sanctioned this on 6 July 2023.

Consequently, Iswaran was brought in by CPIB on 11 July 2023 and later released on bail.

The CPIB, operating under the oversight of PM Lee, has neither indicated a timeline for resolution nor provided substantial updates on Iswaran's status since his arrest and subsequent bail in July 2023.

Furthermore, when queried by The Straits Times in the most recent report, the CPIB refused to offer any updates.

However, the real underlying question is not so much about when Iswaran will be charged by the CPIB, but rather about the CPIB's conspicuous silence regarding Iswaran's innocence.

This prolonged non-declaration is increasingly troubling, suggesting a scenario where the lack of resolution becomes more detrimental than any potential verdict. If the matter were a straightforward case of Iswaran's innocence or minor severity in his actions, wouldn't the CPIB announce the conclusion of the investigation or issue a non-binding warning?

The lack of action from the CPIB suggests that the matter concerning Iswaran is gravely serious.

This is further supported by how Iswaran has been relieved of his ministerial duties, subjected to a substantial pay cut, and confined to Singapore. Despite these measures, he continues receiving an MP salary of S$192,500 annually in addition to the reduced ministerial pay of S$8,500 — a point heavily contested in Parliament.

In the case of the Keppel executives involved in the Brazil corruption case, after an extensive five-year probe in 2018, the CPIB issued a stern warning to all six without any public announcement in the interim.

In response to questions about why the six were not charged despite the company's admission to US authorities, Indranee Rajah, the Minister in the Prime Minister's Office, explained in February 2023 that the six former senior management staff members of Keppel Offshore & Marine (KOM) were not prosecuted in the multi-million dollar bribery case due to insufficient evidence.

This decision was said to have been made in consultation with the Attorney-General’s Chambers (AGC) run by Lucien Wong, who used to be PM Lee’s personal lawyer.

Ms Indranee told the House that the CPIB “had done it best” and that it faced difficulties in gathering evidence in the high-profile case. She said, “Simply put, there is a lack of sufficient evidence, either documentary or through witnesses, which would establish any criminal charge beyond a reasonable doubt against a specific individual.”

Whether the public will witness a similar situation with Iswaran is unknown.

The lack of a clear stance from the CPIB on his innocence to date leaves not just Iswaran but also the PAP in an ambiguous position as they aim to hold onto West Coast GRC.

As the party narrowly secured West Coast GRC in the previous election from the Progress Singapore Party with just 51.68% of the vote, largely due to the Tan Cheng Bock factor, the situation with Iswaran complicates their campaign strategy amidst the growing popularity of PSP's Secretary-General Leong Mun Wai and its Vice-chairman Hazel Poa, both NCMPs since the start of the current parliament.

Even if the PAP wishes to replace Iswaran with a new face ahead of the upcoming General Election (GE), they cannot do so prematurely, as it would contradict their stated belief in his innocence. Dissolving the GRC to create new Single Member Constituencies (SMCs) and merging with other GRCs might be a preferred strategy for the PAP.

In any case, it is probable that Iswaran will stay out of Parliament, maintaining his position as Transport Minister, until PM Lee dissolves it for the next GE.

The PAP probably hopes that the public will not question why Iswaran was not dismissed as an MP or demand the clawback of salaries that arguably should not have been paid to him.

Also ideally, for the PAP, such a scenario would occur when Singaporeans once again provide them with a blank cheque by voting in PAP MPs to form a supermajority in Parliament, thereby dispelling any motions against the party.

On 20 August last year, PM Lee revealed his intention to step down in favour of Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, potentially around the PAP’s 70th anniversary on 21 November 2024, though he did not disclose an exact timeline.

Despite the absence of a clear timeline, PM Lee’s announcement suggests the General Election is likely to occur in 2024, possibly before the party’s anniversary in November.