NUS Assoc Prof highlights out alleged tactics by big tobacco companies to thwart tax hikes

She said the illicit cigarette market in Singapore accounts for less than 4 per cent of the total cigarette market and has progressively diminished over time due to improved controls over illicit trade.

“The vape market is also quite small. While 4,916 people caught vaping sounds like a lot, and it certainly is more than before, in a city of around six million inhabitants it comprises only 0.08 per cent of the total population, “she asserted, shedding light on the disproportion between perception and reality regarding the prevalence of illicit markets for cigarettes and vaping in Singapore.

Assoc Prof van der Eijk, who is also a consultant for the Tobacco Control Programme, is well-known for her advocacy in supporting tobacco control initiatives in Singapore.

She firmly believes in a generational phase-out of tobacco sales, deeming it feasible in Singapore. She also wants to see the minimum legal age to purchase tobacco raised to 25 by 2025.

Inflation in illicit cigarette trade figures

Assoc Prof van der Eijk further dissecting the issue, she said in fact estimates of illicit cigarette trade are difficult to find, and frankly highlighted that “most estimates of illicit cigarette trade are inflated”.

She pointed out that a significant portion of research in this domain is financially supported by the tobacco industry, engaging entities such as the International Tax and Investment Centre (ITIC), Oxford Economics, and KPMG to craft reports that consistently exaggerate the scale of illicit markets.

“These reports, however, tend to grossly overestimate the size of illicit markets, and their methods have been widely criticised. Industry-independent academic studies, with more rigorous and transparent methods, came up with far smaller estimates.”

Assoc Prof van der Eijk expanded on this point, highlighting that the occurrence of illicit cigarette trade is closely linked to levels of corruption and criminal activity, rather than the imposition of tobacco taxes.

“This explains why in Singapore, which has low levels of corruption and criminality, illicit cigarette trade has decreased over the years and remained low even as taxes and other tobacco measures have become more stringent.”

She remarked on the contradictory stance taken by British American Tobacco (BAT), for instance, which publicly emphasizes that “combating illicit trade is a priority to safeguard our combustibles business”.

BAT’s illegal tobacco sales to North Korea via Singapore-based subsidiary result in US$629 million in fines

However, internal documents from the tobacco industry shed light on BAT’s endeavours to penetrate the Vietnamese market during the 1990s when Vietnam had imposed an import ban on cigarettes.

BAT circumvented these restrictions by orchestrating illegal smuggling operations from their manufacturing facilities in Cambodia into Vietnam, effectively stimulating demand for their brands.

Furthermore, Assoc Prof van der Eijk urged Singapore to stand firm and avoid repeating similar mistakes, advocating against the legalization of vaping, emphasizing the potential adverse effects it could have on public health, particularly among the youth.

She emphasized the danger of exposure to content glamorizing vaping, which could mislead young individuals into perceiving vaping as a norm, despite it being predominantly overseas content or limited to a small segment of Singapore’s population.

She pointed out the mounting pressure from the industry to legalize vaping, citing a growing sentiment in Singapore that suggests legalizing it for better regulation if an illicit market already exists.

However, she cautioned against this approach, referencing New Zealand’s example where regulated legality resulted in almost one in five teenagers aged 14 or 15 regularly vaping.

 “With a legal market, Singapore would have a far worse problem.”

“Imagine how many more teens would be vaping if vapes were displayed in every mamak shop near a school, and if people were vaping freely in the streets.”

“Just like in Vietnam and in many other countries where the tobacco transnationals have pried open markets, smoking rates have skyrocketed, with devastating impacts on public health, ” Assoc Prof van der Eijk added.

In 2018, Public Health England’s study revealed that vaping is 95% less harmful than traditional cigarette smoking and aids approximately 20,000 individuals in quitting smoking annually.

Meanwhile, Singapore enforced a ban on the sale of vaping products the same year. The country strictly prohibits the importation and sale of e-cigarettes and vapes as part of a comprehensive ban on imitation tobacco products.