President Jokowi weighs in on election dynamics amidst Prabowo-Gibran’s lead

INDONESIA – Indonesian President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, has weighed in on the quick count results and the evolving political landscape following the country’s closely watched 2024 presidential election.

The election, held on Wednesday (14 Feb), has sparked intense discussions and interpretations nationwide, particularly in light of preliminary tallies indicating a lead for the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka ticket.

During an event at JiExpo Kemayoran, Jakarta, on Thursday (15 Feb), President Jokowi commented on the significance of awaiting the official results from the General Elections Commission (KPU). While acknowledging the scientific nature of quick count methods, he stressed the importance of patience and restraint until the KPU announces the official outcome.

“Quick count results are a scientific method. However, we must wait for the official results from the KPU. So, let’s be patient, let’s not rush,” remarked President Jokowi.

Amidst the unfolding electoral dynamics, President Jokowi revealed his recent meetings with Prabowo and Gibran, extending congratulations to both individuals. However, he hinted at the presence of another participant during their gathering, refraining from disclosing further details.

“I have met directly with Prabowo and Gibran. Four of us met last night. However, I cannot disclose with whom,” Jokowi asserted, underscoring the discreet nature of the meeting.

The political landscape leading up to the 2024 election has been significantly influenced by President Jokowi’s role and his perceived impact on the electorate.

Exit polls conducted by various institutions, including Litbang Kompas, suggest a substantial shift in support from Jokowi’s 2019 base towards the Prabowo-Gibran ticket.

In 2019’s presidential election, Jokowi won with 82.83% against Prabowo.

Senior researcher Litbang Kompas, Bestian Nainggolan, in his analysis on Kompas.id website, Thursday (15 Feb), highlighted the evolving political landscape, attributing the change in voter proportions to the “Jokowi Effect.”

This phenomenon, characterized by Jokowi’s engagements and policy decisions, has reshaped the electoral calculus, evident in the current election’s dynamics.

Furthermore, the distribution of government social assistance programs and Jokowi’s engagement in campaign activities have spurred debates surrounding his neutrality and its implications on the electoral process.

Aditya Perdana, Director of Algoritma Research and Consulting, underscored the predictability of the Prabowo-Gibran ticket’s potential victory, citing earlier survey results and the prevailing public sentiment towards President Jokowi.

“The outcome of today’s presidential election reflects the continued public acceptance of President Joko Widodo,” Aditya remarked, echoing sentiments regarding the incumbent’s enduring influence.

The Prabowo-Gibran ticket’s surge in support, particularly among former Jokowi backers and erstwhile Prabowo voters, underscores the intricate interplay of personalities and political narratives shaping the electoral landscape.

Director of Poltracking Indonesia Hanta Yudha also explained the same thing. According to Hanta, the Jokowi effect is very evident from the victories of Prabowo-Gibran in several areas such as Central Java and Bali.

Referring to Poltracking’s quick count data, the Prabowo-Gibran pair garnered 53% of the vote in Central Java, defeating Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, which is dominated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle. In 2019, Central Java was the stronghold of the PDIP and Jokowi.

“The exodus of Ganjar’s voters to Prabowo is truly massive in Central Java, and that is a factor of Mr Jokowi,” said Hanta, on Wednesday (14 Feb).

According to him, the quick count results also confirm that public satisfaction with Jokowi remains high. On the other hand, Aditya said that the quick count results from several institutions indicate the PDIP’s concerted efforts to ensure victory.

According to him, the party led by Megawati Soekarnoputri has relatively well-maintained its vote bank. However, concerning the presidential election, the PDIP is considered to have difficulty in facing the dominance of Jokowi’s supporters.

“The 2024 election also shows that party choices are not aligned with presidential candidate choices. So, this influences each other between Jokowi and the PDIP,” said Aditya.

Referring to several quick count results, the PDIP is still the party with the most votes. For example, quick count data from Litbang Kompas shows that the PDIP received 16.31% of the votes. The data was collected on Thursday (15 Feb) with a total data entry of 91.95%.

Meanwhile, according to the Poltracking survey, the PDIP garnered 17.16% of the votes with a total data entry of 73.97%.