Tight contest predicted for 2024 Indonesia Presidential Election

INDONESIA:The upcoming 2024 Indonesian presidential election is anticipated to be a fiercely contested battle as several survey agencies release their findings on the electability of potential presidential candidates.

The volunteers of one notable candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, have conducted their own survey, adding to the intrigue surrounding the race.

Ganjar Pranowo’s volunteers conducted the survey using the Proportional Random Sampling method from early April 2023 to late June 2023, involving up to 1,200 respondents from across Indonesia. The survey’s Margin of Error was 2.9 per cent, highlighting the accuracy of the data.

The results of the survey are significant in the current competitive landscape. The Advisory Council of Ganjar’s Friends, Fahlesa Munabari, explained that the survey encompassed various segments of electability, such as Top of Mind Candidates, gender, age range, ethnicity, religion, education, occupation, income, rural/urban settings, regions, and political parties.

According to the survey conducted by Ganjar’s volunteers, he garnered an electability rating of 18.9 per cent for Top-of-Mind Candidates. Notably, among respondents aged 21 years and below, Ganjar excelled with an impressive 44.9 per cent.

Quoted from Tribunnews.com, on Tuesday (25 Jul), Fahlesa praised Ganjar’s 46.6 per cent rating among respondents grouped by religion, earning him the label “Father of Tolerance.” Other segments showed slight variations in electability compared to his political rivals.

Discussing the survey results, Fahlesa emphasized that the event was an opportunity for Ganjar’s friends and political analysts to assess his continued strong electability across various segments.

“We have the electability trend of Pak Ganjar from various segments, so this discussion is to exchange ideas with political observers to collectively assess Pak Ganjar’s sustained lead in electability,” said Fahlesa.

Notably, political observer, Ujang Komarudin, lauded the survey’s objectivity, stating that the statistics aligned with other reputable polling agencies. Ujang also pointed out three essential factors in political surveys: popularity, public preference, and electability. He expressed confidence in Ganjar’s potential for an upward trajectory, citing an 8.1 percent potential increase in electability.

However, the survey also highlighted areas where Ganjar Pranowo could use improvement in certain segments. To enhance his electability, Ganjar’s supporters need to work diligently through party efforts, volunteer campaigns, and individual actions.

“If this is consolidated with the efforts of the party, volunteers, and individuals, then it can increase the popularity of Mr Ganjar,” Ujang added.

Despite Ganjar’s strong showing, a survey conducted by Utting Research, based in Australia, from June 12 to June 17, 2023, indicated that no candidate can be confidently declared as the winner yet.

Utting Research’s survey involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents spread proportionally across Indonesia’s 34 provinces, using multi-stage random sampling with a Margin of Error of +/- 2.8 per cent at a confidence level of 95 per cent.

In the survey conducted by Utting Research, Ganjar Pranowo’s electability stood at 34 per cent, closely followed by Prabowo Subianto with 33 per cent, and Anies Baswedan with 27 per cent. The narrow gap between the three leading candidates suggests a highly competitive race, with potential fluctuations leading up to the presidential election.

“The 2024 Indonesian presidential election is highly intriguing. Eight months before the D-day, the winner is still highly uncertain. The top three contenders’ electability remains closely balanced,” said Managing Director John Utting of Utting Research in his statement on Thursday (27 Jul).

Regarding the candidates’ vision and mission desired by the public, the majority of respondents in the survey expressed their preference for a continuation of President Joko Widodo‘s policies with some improvements.

Around 61 per cent of respondents hoped for a presidential candidate with a mix of existing government policies and necessary enhancements. In contrast, approximately 20 per cent favoured a new and different direction, while 18 per cent supported continuing Jokowi’s current policies.

Indikator Politik Indonesia (Indonesian Political Indicator) also weighed in on Ganjar Pranowo’s electability, asserting that he outperformed Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan under certain conditions. Their survey indicated a tight race between Ganjar and Prabowo, with both leading significantly ahead of Anies Baswedan.

Executive Director of Indikator Politik Indonesia, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, explained that this political survey was conducted face-to-face from June 20 to June 24, 2023.

It involved 1,220 respondents from all provinces aged 17 years or older and eligible to participate in elections. Respondents were chosen using the simple random sampling method, with a margin of error of approximately 2.9 per cent at a confidence level of 95 per cent.

Indikator Politik applied several simulations in the presidential survey. In the simulation of 34 semi-open names, Prabowo ranked first with 31.6 per cent electability, followed by Ganjar with 31.4 per cent, and Anies with 17.6 per cent. In the simulation of 19 semi-open names, Prabowo narrowly defeated Ganjar with 33.4 per cent of the vote, Ganjar with 31.5 per cent, and Anies with 17.4 per cent.

“Prabowo is still leading, although his lead is not too significant compared to Mas Ganjar,” said Burhan in a press conference on YouTube Indikator Politik Indonesia on Sunday (23 Jul), as quoted from Kompas.com.

Political parties supporting Ganjar Pranowo are closely monitoring the dynamics of these surveys. The parties are not allergic to survey results, even though the surveys don’t always place Ganjar in the top position. Survey results can be one of the tools to evaluate political strategies.

Andreas Hugo Pareira, a cadre of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP)

Andreas Hugo Pareira from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) revealed that the parties will intensify efforts to raise Ganjar’s electability. The current governor of Central Java enjoys a favourable public perception compared to other candidates, and parties believe that with more exposure, his electability will rise further.

“Indeed, Ganjar Pranowo’s level of recognition is not yet at its maximum, but the level of favorability towards him is relatively better compared to other candidates. So, if Ganjar’s recognition reaches its peak, I believe his electability will rise, and we are currently seeing an upward trend,” said Andreas on Tuesday (25 Jul).

He continued, Ganjar’s electability movement is very positive. He believes that the public can see and feel it, especially since Ganjar is continuously engaging with people in various regions. In the remaining time before the registration for presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Andreas stated that Ganjar and his supporting party will increase the intensity of meetings with the public. “Socialization will become more intensive,” emphasized Andreas.

PDIP has already designated Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the Mayor of Surakarta (Solo), as Ganjar’s Campaign Manager, showcasing the collective efforts of the party to secure Ganjar’s victory.

In addition to PDIP, the United Development Party (PPP) has also been conducting training for millennial campaigners, aiming to improve future strategies and increase Ganjar’s electability.

The spokesperson of the United Development Party (PPP), Usman M. Tokan, also gave a similar statement on last Tuesday (25 Jul), “We are currently taking many steps to improve future strategies to continuously increase Ganjar Pranowo’s electability,” .

One of these steps includes training campaign coordinators (jurkam) for Ganjar’s victory. He mentioned that this jurkam training for the millennial generation is ongoing both at the central and regional levels.

Regarding the survey results showing Ganjar’s electability not being at the top position, Usman believes it is essential to consider the population target of the respondents.